I am truly delighted to be here in your midst to celebrate the 40th Anniversary of the Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis. I am particularly happy that you have chosen on this auspicious occasion to honour your former Director, Shri K. Subrahmanyam, for helping to lay a strong foundation for this institution in its formative years. His incisive writings continue to stimulate and contribute to the thinking of strategic analysts and policy makers in this vital area of national concern. We look forward to many more years of active contribution from this doyen of the strategic community in India, to the vital policy debates of our times.

Over the years, Shri Subrahmanyam has pointed out in his writings the importance of making strategic choices that affect our national security and well-being, by careful weighing of costs and benefits without getting trapped in "black and white" views of the world, ignoring the shades in between, in which the real world manifests itself. He has been an ardent advocate of a holistic vision of national security, tempered with a sense of realism and pragmatism.

Let me therefore suggest that in keeping with our honorand's dictum on the need for long term planning, we use this anniversary celebration to introspect on strategic policy planning in general, and on IDSA's contributions to this process in particular.

On balance, I think it is fair to say that over the past four decades IDSA has largely fulfilled its mission. While the existence of IDSA as one of our few strategic think-tanks suggests a deeper need to create an adequately vibrant strategic community, this is perhaps a subject for study in its own right. Suffice here to say that I believe your institute has rendered yeoman service, often in difficult circumstances, to promote strategic thinking, inform policy-makers and the public at large, and to develop a community of strategic thinkers. I congratulate all those associated with this Institute for contributing to strategic studies and institution building in a vital area of national concern.

However, an anniversary is also an occasion to objectively consider the lessons of the past, and to strategize to meet the challenges of our future. I would like to briefly outline the challenges that confront us today.

It is a truism that despite the progress humankind has recorded, war, like privation, disease and ignorance, is far from being eliminated. In fact, as we progress materially, our record in coping with conflict seems to be, probably, worsening. While instances of war and armed conflict may have been reduced over time, the actual impact on people has worsened. Estimates suggest that mortality caused by conflict has increased dramatically, from 1.6 million in the sixteenth century to nearly 110 million in the twentieth century.

We can therefore draw no comfort from the trends that determine our future. Optimists suggest that the present security challenges will at worst persist; but pessimists forecast cataclysmic devastation. Pragmatists suggest that security problems will worsen overtime, but probably incrementally. Personally, despite my own training in the "dismal science" of Economics, I am inclined to be more optimistic than the optimists. Perhaps Bonar Law was right when he said that "there is no such thing as an inevitable war. If war comes, it will be from the failure of human wisdom". I believe that peace in our troubled and violent age requires eternal vigil, patience and wisdom. We must all work together to analyze potential sources of conflict to find solutions without recourse to arms. It is this that is the challenge before Governments and humankind as a whole.

It is in this context that centres of research and think-tanks derive their importance. Policy making in most countries is often reactive: Governments are driven by deadlines and events. And once an event occurs, it is a bit late to plan for it! This is one reason why so many problems are difficult to resolve. Proactive planning is the goal of strategic thinkers worldwide, and this is where your community must step up efforts to identify problems, highlight trends, develop scenarios, and suggest policy options, before crises overtake us.

I have often said and felt that there is a dearth of long term planning. Of course there is a saying of a very famous Cambridge economist, Lord Keynes, who said in the long term, we are all dead, but I do believe that there is a need for long term planning. On the one hand, policy papers can sometimes become impractical, and on the other, policy options are sometimes bereft of long term vision. Our academia loses its sense of independence and Government begins to devalue inputs from outside its system. There is therefore an obvious interest in strengthening mutual interaction to focus on long term planning.

In the lexicon of economics, the cost of investing in long-term policy making - in time, money and energy - are quantifiable and immediate. Unfortunately, however, the benefits are reaped only in future, and all too frequently, by successors. These benefits are also hard to quantify, since a crisis averted does not register on the popular consciousness. Naturally, the incentive for in-depth analysis and long-term policy planning has always been weak, despite the obviously disastrous consequences of ignoring such efforts.

Having said that, let me elaborate my perspective of our security environment. There are those who define security solely in the narrow prism of violent conflict. However, I believe violence is only a symptom of larger social and economic ailments. Societies face risks in terms of competition the power and control, from institutional failures, weakening democratic structures, economic disparities and, of course, sectarian and territorial disputes. Sometimes external factors such as regional conflict, scarcity of resources and economic shocks adversely affect societies. For instance, competition for the increasingly expensive sources of energy particularly hydrocarbons can lead to local and even global economic crises, and eventually if care not taken, may lead to serious conflicts as well. Indeed, many threats to internal security derive from a sense of alienation among people. This sentiment is then exploited by external forces inimical to our nation. There is thus a link between external and internal threats to our security. Therefore, apart from firm political and administrative handling of such threats, we also need the economic and social space within which a political leadership can contend with such problems. This space can be created by rapid social and economic development. Apart from deriving a linkage with our own internal challenges, regional disturbances in neighbouring countries affect us in other ways. The danger of a number of failed States emerging in our neighbourhood has far reaching consequences for our region and our people. The impact includes crises which generate an inflow of refugees and by destablisation of our border areas. We see signs of the ills of disaffection, alienation and conflict not only in India but also across our neighbourhood. We have to be alert to these developments and deal with the dangers that lie ahead.

The breakdown of effective international mechanisms also affects the security of individual countries. As long as terrorism was seen as a phenomenon that was 'elsewhere', the international community was unwilling to adopt an effective coordinated strategy to deal with this menace which constitutes a grave threat to the civilized world. Similarly, the international regime against proliferation is also under stress. It is clear that the existing system of unequal and discriminatory rules, based on the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty is deeply flawed. It has permitted unchecked proliferation by some, while preventing countries such as ours from acting in its economic and security interests. An effective non proliferation framework that addresses our security interests while simultaneously encouraging peaceful uses of nuclear energy is in our vital national interest.

Apart from the many factors that are challenges to our security, options to address such challenges are also not limited to mere application of force. Whether it is war in its classical sense, or in its many variations such as internal conflict, insurgent movements or even transnational terrorism, non-military measures are invariably needed to evolve durable solutions. Hence, policy analysts must adopt interdisciplinary approaches and policy planners should develop sophisticated, multi-pronged responses. These must result in improving our security in all its dimensions: economic, social, political and even in terms of food and energy security. Such an approach is even more important as military and police forces grapple with new and unconventional challenges.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

At the same time, as media transforms our world into a global village, threats involving large-scale loss of lives have to be factored into any security matrix. Similarly, just as our interconnected world has brought with it an easing of borders or softening of borders, it has also unfortunately enabled many security problems to attain transnational and global dimensions. The specter of international terrorism is one such phenomenon evolving out of the churning that has accompanied globalization processes. It is imperative to contend with both trans-border, regional and global ramifications of local problems as well as the reverse. In devising strategies to meet transborder challenges, we must now consider ways of evolving multinational strategies.

We must also find ways of using international opinion as a force multiplier in addressing external challenges effectively. No country in the world, howsoever powerful, even the sole superpower in the world today, can counter threats unilaterally. This therefore makes diplomacy doubly important for a poor country such as ours. I have often said that for us in India, effective diplomacy is an important supplement and indeed an alternative to excessive defence spending. Therefore it is important to devise methods of effectively participating in multilateral fora, in influencing world opinion and striving to make such mechanisms more representative, more consensual and more effective and mindful of India's national concerns.

It is in this context that I have said in the past that our security policy in the emerging global order must be based on three pillars. The first must be to strengthen India economically and technologically; second, to develop adequate defence capability making the optimal use of modern science and technology so that we can effectively meet all contemporary challenges to our security. And finally we must develop partnerships in the strategic economic and technological spheres to enlarge our policy choices and developmental options.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Therefore, our engagement with the major powers and indeed with the world must be set in this wider perspective. We must balance the pursuit of national interests with a clear appreciation of what other nations perceive as their core interests. To advance our own security interests, we must engage in cooperative, constructive and mutually beneficial relations with all major powers of the world. Most of all, we must engage in proactively strengthening multilateral mechanisms for financial, economic and political security.

We have as a nation, a great State in a rule based international system, a system that is rule based and not deal based. I believe all poor countries have a stake in an international system that is just equitable and effective.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

National security is increasingly a complex and interlinked challenge. Appropriate handling now requires comprehensive capabilities and the collective effort of the nation. In a troubled world, India can and must play a more positive role in securing peace and maintaining it. We need to do so remaining mindful of the fact that international relations are ultimately power relations, based on realpolitik, not on sentiment. And howsoever, we may regret it, international relations are not a morality play.

While India seeks economic development and material progress both for itself and for the role that we believe is India's destiny, institutions such as yours must strive to become world class centres of excellence. Your goal must be to expand the knowledge pool on issues of security and in planning for a better collective future for our people. I wish you well in these endeavours, on this auspicious day. May your efforts to achieve this vision be realized well before the 50th anniversary of your establishment.

Thank you.